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3h ago

Bills Favored Over Patriots for Sunday Night AFC East Matchup at Highmark Stadium

Betting markets favor Buffalo, with the 4-0 Bills monitoring RT Spencer Brown's calf ahead of Oct. 5.

Will Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football? NFL Week 5 predictions, picks, odds preview the game.
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Overview

  • The divisional game is set for Sunday, Oct. 5 at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock in Orchard Park, N.Y.
  • Sportsbooks price Buffalo as a 7.5–8.5-point favorite, with totals listed between 46.5 and 50.5 depending on the book.
  • Predictive models lean Bills, including ESPN at 68.7% win probability and Dimers at 75%, though some outlets back New England to cover or see limited value on the Patriots moneyline.
  • Right tackle Spencer Brown missed the last game with a calf injury and is described by Sean McDermott as trending upward, a key note after Buffalo allowed three sacks against the Saints.
  • Consensus power rankings place Buffalo near the top (average No. 1.6) while New England rises after a 42–13 win over Carolina but remains lower, with analysts still calling Buffalo’s defense a work in progress.