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3h ago

Bills Favored Over Falcons for Week 6 Monday Night Football as Models Lean Buffalo, Some Picks Back Atlanta Cover

Data-driven projections give Buffalo roughly a two-thirds chance to win, steering early lines toward Bills -5.5 at some books.

Will Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta Falcons beat the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football? NFL Week 6 predictions, picks, odds preview the game on Oct. 13, 2025.
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Overview

  • The game is set for Monday, Oct. 13 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a 7:15 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN.
  • Published odds show Buffalo favored between -4 and -5.5 with moneyline pricing around -200 to -238 and a total of 48.5 points.
  • Dimers’ simulations give the Bills about a 67% win probability and list Falcons +5.5 as a value play with a projected 26–21 Buffalo win.
  • The Bills enter at 4–1 after a 23–20 loss to New England, and Josh Allen criticized the offense’s “piss poor” execution in that defeat.
  • Most predictions lean Buffalo, though at least one outlet picks an Atlanta upset, citing the Falcons’ run game, pass defense and extra prep off a bye.