Overview

• Early betting lists Buffalo as a roughly 3–5 point favorite with a moneyline near -200 and an over/under around 48.5, depending on the sportsbook.
• Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model gives the Bills about a 67% win probability and shows value on Atlanta at +5.5 against the spread.
• SportsLine’s model projects Buffalo winning nearly 80% of simulations and covering in well over 70%.
• Several analysts see potential value on the Falcons, citing extra rest from a bye and Bijan Robinson’s matchup against a Bills run defense that has been vulnerable.
• Buffalo is 4–1 after its first loss to New England, with Josh Allen criticizing the offense’s performance, while Atlanta enters 2–2 coming off a bye.