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Billionaire Tax Race Tight as Rival Measures Could Void a Win

The Nov. 3 outcome will determine whether a one-time 5% net-worth levy on billionaires survives competing 'poison pill' measures and likely sparks rapid legal fights.

Overview

  • Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on Californians with net worths above $1 billion to fund Medi-Cal and other health services.
  • Two separately funded measures, Propositions 41 and 42, include language that would nullify Prop. 40 if either receives more yes votes, creating an unusual self-canceling ballot dynamic.
  • Wealthy opponents have spent hundreds of millions to defeat Prop. 40, outraising supporters by large margins and flooding the airwaves with ads that polls show have left many voters confused.
  • Experts warn projected revenue of roughly $100 billion is uncertain because of billionaire departures, valuation disputes, retroactivity and enforcement costs that could sharply reduce collections.
  • The fight has exposed a split in the Democratic coalition, drawn national attention as a model for state wealth taxes, and is expected to produce immediate court challenges no matter which measures prevail.