Overview

• On July 28 on his Club Random podcast, Bill Maher acknowledged his prediction that President Trump’s April tariffs would tank the economy by the Fourth of July was unfounded
• Maher pointed to record-high stock market levels and drove around neighborhoods without seeing signs of a depression in everyday life
• Federal Reserve data show manufacturing output growth and U.S. Census Bureau reports highlight a 0.6% June retail sales climb alongside a sixth straight weekly drop in jobless claims
• The Trump administration has paired its reciprocal tariff campaign with new trade agreements with the European Union, Japan and the Philippines
• Maher’s reversal underscores the difficulty of political forecasting and renews debate over media figures owning up to inaccurate predictions