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BigBear.ai Turns to Deals as 2025 Revenue Set to Fall, Eyes Ask Sage for 2026 Boost

Analysts project a 2026 revenue lift from Ask Sage alongside continued losses.

Overview

  • BigBear.ai guides 2025 revenue down 11%–21% to $125 million–$140 million, signaling pressure in its core government programs.
  • Its backlog slipped to $376 million in Q3 2025 from $385 million in Q1, and gross margin fell 240 basis points to 22.8% over the first nine months of 2025.
  • The company agreed to acquire generative AI platform provider Ask Sage for $250 million, with closing targeted by late 2025 or early 2026.
  • BigBear.ai previously bought Pangiam for $70 million in early 2024, and former Pangiam chief Kevin McAleenan took over as CEO in January.
  • Consensus forecasts call for revenue to rise about 23% to $164 million in 2026 with Ask Sage integration, then ease slightly in 2027, with profitability still out of reach.