Overview
- Shares rose after investors focused on the mid-January redemption of 6% notes that removes roughly $125 million of obligations.
- About $58 million of the principal converted voluntarily in 2025, and the company expects the rest to convert via reserved common stock without material cash outlay.
- BigBear.ai closed the $250 million cash purchase of Ask Sage in December, adding secure generative-AI capabilities and about $25 million in expected 2025 ARR.
- Management and analysts still flag pressure on fundamentals, with 2025 revenue guided down 11%–21% to $125–$140 million and consensus projecting negative adjusted EBITDA of roughly $33 million.
- The company is pursuing growth beyond core U.S. contracts through a C Speed radar-AI partnership and a new Abu Dhabi office targeting international defense opportunities.