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BigBear.ai Shares Rebound as Ask Sage Deal Looms After Volatile Post‑Earnings Week

The AI contractor reaffirmed 2025 revenue guidance after reporting lower sales and margins in Q3.

Overview

  • Third-quarter revenue came in at $33.1 million, down about 20% year over year but above the $31.8 million consensus, with gross margin sliding to 22.4% from 25.9%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA turned to a $9.4 million loss with negative operating and free cash flow, while the company ended the quarter holding $586.7 million in cash and investments against $104.9 million in debt after sizable equity issuance.
  • Management maintained full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $125 million to $140 million.
  • BigBear.ai announced a deal to acquire Ask Sage, described as a generative AI platform for secure government environments, with closing targeted for late Q4 2025 or early 2026 and limited expected impact on 2025 results.
  • The stock fell about 8% on Monday and roughly 13% over five days before ticking higher Tuesday, as H.C. Wainwright’s Scott Buck reiterated a Buy rating with an $8 target and characterized Ask Sage as a potential 2026 catalyst that could help lift revenue toward $200 million.