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BigBear.ai Rallies on Q3 Beat and Ask Sage Deal Despite Soft Fundamentals

The planned Ask Sage purchase is slated to close late in the fourth quarter or early 2026 with little near-term effect.

Overview

  • Revenue fell 20% year over year to $33.1 million, topping the $31.8 million consensus as management cited lower U.S. Army work.
  • Gross margin declined to 22.4% from 25.9%, reflecting fewer higher-margin programs and the on‑premises nature of much government work.
  • Adjusted EBITDA swung to a $9.4 million loss, with operating cash flow at negative $9.6 million and free cash flow at negative $9.8 million.
  • The company ended the quarter with $586.7 million in cash and investments and $104.9 million in debt after raising over $637 million in equity this year.
  • Full-year revenue guidance remains $125 million to $140 million, below 2024’s $158.2 million, as analysts caution the stock’s valuation looks rich and not directly comparable to Palantir’s higher-margin, more recurring model.