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BigBear.ai Rallies on Defense Work as Investors Weigh a Pullback

Analysts caution that weak second-quarter results complicate the rally.

Overview

  • Shares have risen about 329% over the past year and 57% year to date, yet sit roughly 28.5% below the mid-February 52-week high based on pricing through Sept. 29.
  • The stock climbed 7.1% to $6.98 on Wednesday, and a September announcement of an SMX collaboration supporting the U.S. Navy’s UNITAS 2025 exercise lifted shares 12.8%.
  • The company is showcasing AI for mission-based operations and expanding biometric passenger processing at major airports, drawing investor interest in government and infrastructure use cases.
  • Recent results showed weaker second-quarter revenue, sizable non-cash losses, and a 2025 revenue outlook cut to roughly $125 million to $140 million, while cash on hand remains substantial.
  • Coverage presents the retreat from highs as a possible buying opportunity, with persistent concerns about valuation and converting demonstrations into recurring contract revenue.