Overview
- As of mid‑August 2026, filings and a Wall Street Journal analysis show nine major tech firms have about $3 trillion in off‑balance‑sheet AI commitments split roughly between $1.2 trillion in uncommenced leases and $1.9 trillion in purchase contracts.
- The surge in 2026 corporate bond sales tied to AI has accelerated sharply, with estimates of roughly $159 billion to $225 billion issued so far and Wall Street forecasts that AI‑related issuance could reach roughly $400 billion to $500 billion by year‑end.
- Under current accounting rules many of these leases and purchase commitments do not appear as balance‑sheet liabilities until leases start or goods are delivered, which hides the scale of future cash obligations from standard debt and capex metrics.
- Market signals show strain: investor demand for new issues has weakened, cover ratios fell from about 5x in February to below 2x by July, concessions and credit spreads have widened, and some new bonds have traded below their issue price.
- The borrowing wave is competing with large U.S. Treasury supply and is cited by investors as a factor lifting long‑term yields, raising the risk that higher financing costs, supplier stress, and slower-than-expected AI monetization could hurt companies and markets.