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Biden and Xi Jinping Meet Amid Political Repercussions and Minimal Expectations

Potential Resumption of Military Communications and AI Commitment Discussed, New Pan-Asian Trade Deal Expected

  • President Joe Biden is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a highly anticipated meeting, the first since last spring's Chinese spy balloon incident. The meeting has political repercussions for Biden at home, with a successful meeting potentially circumventing a foreign policy crisis with China before next year's elections.
  • Xi Jinping is now in an unprecedented third term as president and many of his contemporaries have been 'sidelined' or 'retired' as part of 'a purge and political instability.' This makes it imperative for the United States to get messages directly to the leadership in China.
  • Expectations for substantive agreement are minimal, with only one concrete agreement hinted at by Biden’s advisers - a resumption of military-to-military communications, which were suspended by the Chinese after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in the summer of 2022.
  • Both sides have been discussing whether they could find a way to a future commitment to keep artificial intelligence software out of their nuclear command and control systems.
  • Biden is additionally tipped to announce a new pan-Asian trade deal, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, which Trump has already criticized as a new Trans-Pacific Partnership.
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