Overview
- Polymarket odds for National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett climbed to about 56%–57% by Friday, making him the leading favorite over Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh.
- The surge followed Bloomberg reporting earlier in the week, and traders are pricing a potentially more dovish policy path with possible pressure on the U.S. dollar.
- The White House has characterized the chatter as speculative, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled a strong chance of an announcement before Christmas.
- Analysts note any push toward faster rate cuts would require building consensus on the FOMC and clearing Senate confirmation, with some warning about credibility risks and higher long-term yields.
- Hassett has argued tariffs can be deflationary, forecast core PCE near 2.9%–3% this year, and has publicly affirmed that Federal Reserve policy should remain independent of political influence.