Overview

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promoted a Fox News interview and posted on X that every $300 billion in tariff revenue adds 1% to GDP, saying growth could reach 5%.
• AEI’s Kyle Pomerleau argued the effect runs the other way, estimating $300 billion in tariffs would reduce long-run output by just under 1%, with other analysts calling Bessent’s math incorrect.
• The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Survey found 72% of respondents reported negative impacts from the tariffs, while ISM’s August manufacturing PMI registered 48.7 for a sixth straight month of contraction.
• A federal appeals court ruled 7–4 that using emergency powers to impose the broad tariffs is unlawful, but the decision is stayed as the administration seeks Supreme Court review.
• Market backdrops complicate the effort: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down more than 10% this year, even as Bessent works to defend the currency’s standing.