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Bessent Rejects 2026 Recession Risk as Trump Touts Looming Tariff Windfall

A Supreme Court decision on the administration’s emergency tariff program remains pending, injecting uncertainty into the revenue claims.

Overview

  • On NBC, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. will avoid a 2026 recession and forecast “very strong, noninflationary” growth.
  • He acknowledged housing and other rate-sensitive industries have been in recession and pegged the 43-day shutdown’s permanent loss at $11 billion.
  • Bessent argued services inflation, not Trump’s sweeping tariffs, has lifted prices, while recent food-tariff rollbacks and lower energy costs could bring some relief within weeks or months.
  • President Trump said tariff payments will “SKYROCKET” as pre-tariff inventory runs down, even as polls show many voters doubt his affordability claims.
  • Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick promoted a possible $2,000 tariff “dividend” and voiced confidence in a Supreme Court win on tariff authority after the CBO trimmed long-term tariff-revenue projections.