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Bernstein Upgrades ASML to Outperform, Sets $1,528 Price Target on AI Spending Thesis

The call hinges on AI-driven capex that swells EUV tool needs, with forecasts showing demand nearing ASML capacity by 2027.

Overview

  • Bernstein raised ASML to outperform and lifted its target to $1,528 from $935, implying roughly 23% upside from about $1,242.
  • The firm models revenue up about 6% in 2026 with 10%–12% annual growth through 2030, projecting operational margins rising to 57.7% by decade-end.
  • Analysts cite AI-fueled investments by memory makers and foundries, noting the upcoming 1c DRAM node could push lithography to roughly 28% of process steps and increase tool intensity.
  • Forecasts suggest TSMC could add 40–45 EUV scanners by 2027, taking total industry EUV installations to roughly 75–80 units near ASML’s practical capacity.
  • Aletheia Capital earlier upgraded ASML to Buy with a $1,500 target, projecting Low-NA EUV revenue growth of about one-third in FY26 and 50%–60% in FY27 as shares have climbed about 56% over six months.