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Bernstein Turns Neutral on India as BNP Paribas Projects Bigger 2026 Nifty Upside

Elevated valuations alongside an imminent earnings season set the tone for how far the Nifty can run.

Overview

  • Bernstein now sees the Nifty at 28,100 by end‑2026, implying roughly 7.6% returns for the year.
  • The firm warns of a downside near 24,800 if EPS growth slows to about 8% and valuation multiples compress to 18.5 times.
  • India enters 2026 trading above 20 times forward earnings, placing it among the most expensive major markets, Bernstein says.
  • BNP Paribas targets 29,500 for the Nifty by year‑end, pointing to an earnings rebound in large private banks and continued strength in telecom, autos, and consumer staples, with a tilt toward large caps.
  • Previews for the December‑quarter results point to flat to low single‑digit profit growth for benchmark indices, a backdrop that could sway earnings revisions and investor sentiment.