Overview
- Bernstein analysts model a $50 billion to $130 billion price range for a standalone SpaceX terrestrial mobile network with that total including spectrum acquisition costs.
- Their base 'National' scenario assumes roughly $70 billion in spending and about 57,000 macro cell sites built over roughly eight years to reach broad coverage.
- If SpaceX secures low‑band spectrum like Grain’s block the firm estimates tower needs could fall by about 30 percent, substantially lowering build costs.
- Elon Musk publicly denied that SpaceX is pursuing Grain’s spectrum while rival AST SpaceMobile has received a 30‑day FCC temporary authorization to test on those frequencies.
- SpaceX still plans to start Starship launches for its Mobile V2 satellites in mid‑2027 and Bernstein says partnerships or spectrum deals remain the more likely near‑term commercial path given the large capital and technical risks.