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Bernstein Says Nvidia’s AI Tailwinds and Compressed Valuation Set Up Gains Into 2026

The firm highlights a roughly 25-times forward multiple near decade lows relative to Nvidia’s history as well as the SOX.

Overview

  • Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon reiterated an Outperform rating on Dec. 19 with a $275 price target.
  • Nvidia is trading near 25x forward earnings, placing it in the 11th percentile of its 10-year valuation range.
  • Relative to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the stock trades at roughly a 13% discount, in the first percentile over the past decade.
  • The call cites resilient AI capex plans, a recovering GPU narrative, Rubin on the roadmap, and potential China upside from H200 approvals.
  • Bernstein says current estimates look low versus the company’s $500 billion-plus Blackwell/Rubin guidance and views the near-term setup as attractive.