Bernstein Keeps $140 Target on Circle, Citing Renewed USDC Momentum

Overview

• Bernstein reaffirmed an Outperform rating and a $140 price target for Circle on Aug. 24, saying the stock could rise about 59% from recent levels based on USDC demand and product adoption.
• USDC circulating supply rose roughly $1.7 billion after about six months of little change, a move Bernstein views as a sign that adoption is picking up again.
• When excluding bot and high-frequency activity, stablecoin transaction volume was tracking at an annualized pace near $17 trillion through July, which Bernstein cites as a major source of fee revenue potential.
• Circle’s product push into machine-to-machine payments is gaining traction: Agent Stack launched in May and by Q2 supported more than 900 paid services with 99.3% of x402 agent-payment volume settling in USDC.
• Key risks remain: Congress is expected to vote on the CLARITY Act on Sept. 15, the OCC approved Circle National Trust in July, and competition from consortium models like Open USD has prompted analyst downgrades that highlight margin and regulatory uncertainty.