Overview

• UniCredit has raised its direct holding to roughly 26%–26.4% and holds additional instruments cleared to lift its position up to 29.9%, with any move past 30% triggering a mandatory offer.
• The federal government, which owns about 12% of Commerzbank, says it will not sell its stake despite potential multibillion-euro proceeds at recent share prices.
• Commerzbank vice‑CEO Michael Kotzbauer warns of clear conflicts tied to UniCredit’s German unit HypoVereinsbank and says a lower share price could benefit a takeover attempt.
• M&A expert Christoph Schalast describes UniCredit’s approach as textbook, notes the legal path is open but the economics are uncertain, and estimates the success probability at roughly 50–50.
• Unions and stakeholders caution that a deal could cost many jobs—estimates reach about 15,000—and raise concerns for Mittelstand clients and Frankfurt’s standing as a financial center.