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Beijing Analyst Warns of Fresh Philippine Maritime Provocations

Beijing’s top maritime analyst forecasts that Manila’s recent reef occupations will lead to renewed confrontations in the South China Sea with Vietnam as a potential flashpoint.

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Crew members of the Philippine Coast Guard ship Teresa Magbanua wave during exercises with the United States Coast Guard ship Cutter Stratton and the Japan Coast Guard ship Asanagi in the waters around the southern city of Kagoshima, Kagoshima prefecture on June 20, 2025.
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Overview

  • Wu Shicun, head of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said Manila’s recent occupations of Second Thomas Shoal, Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal will trigger more maritime clashes and potentially draw Vietnam into the dispute.
  • Chinese maritime forces have mounted blockades at contested reefs and used ramming and water-cannon attacks in response to Philippine patrols within its exclusive economic zone.
  • The Philippine government decided to keep the U.S.-deployed Typhon mid-range missile system indefinitely, prompting Beijing to protest its extended strike capability.
  • Defense Chief Gilberto Teodoro warned that China’s regional expansionism follows a long-term plan driven by Beijing’s own strategy rather than the policies of any U.S. administration.
  • The long-standing U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty remains ironclad, underpinning expanded Balikatan exercises and Manila’s $35 billion military modernization program to bolster deterrence.