Overview

• Labor Department data show August averages reached $6.32 per pound for 100% ground beef and $12.22 for steaks, with beef inflation outpacing overall consumer prices.
• The USDA projects U.S. beef production will fall about 4% in 2025 and another 2% in 2026 as cattle inventories sit at their smallest since 1951.
• Supply pressure has been compounded by a temporary closure of Mexican cattle imports to prevent New World screwworm and higher U.S. tariffs on Brazilian beef trimmings that lift the total import tax to 76.4%.
• A Morning Consult/PCRM survey finds 60% of consumers are buying less beef, 35% are considering nonmeat alternatives—rising to 53% among Gen Z—and more shoppers are turning to other meats with smaller price gains.
• Analysts expect elevated prices to persist for years given long herd-rebuilding timelines, while restaurants and processors report rising costs and tighter margins.