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Becerra Holds Large Lead as Hilton Pushes Aggressive Final-Week Surge

Polls show a commanding Democratic lead, making turnout-driven late shifts the only realistic route for a Republican comeback.

Overview

  • Multiple polls released this month show Xavier Becerra ahead by double digits, with an Emerson College survey placing him roughly 27 points in front of Steve Hilton.
  • Hilton stepped up activity in the final week, which crisscrossed the state on Tuesday, holding rallies in Oceanside and Newport Beach and running provocative ads to court voters.
  • The Republican has rolled out a broad package called Operation Zero Waste that calls for canceling the high-speed rail, cutting executive-branch headcount, reforming Medi-Cal and capping per-unit costs in affordable housing programs.
  • Becerra has run a cautious, experience-focused campaign and spent recent days opposing the GOP-backed Prop. 39 and helping down-ballot Democrats while outraising Hilton by roughly $40 million to $33.6 million.
  • With affordability and homelessness topping voter concerns, the race now hinges on whether Hilton’s late messaging can shift turnout in swing areas such as the Central Valley or whether California’s Democratic registration advantage holds.