Overview
- The Emerson College survey conducted Oct. 17–19 put Xavier Becerra ahead roughly 60% to 33%, a lead reflected across multiple October polls and cited by several outlets.
- Steve Hilton has intensified in-person rallies this week, including a large Oceanside event Tuesday, and has rolled out bold proposals such as “Operation Zero Waste” that seek quick, attention-grabbing fixes on taxes, gas and homelessness.
- Becerra has taken a lower-profile approach while campaigning with Democratic allies, campaigning against Proposition 39 and focusing on governance experience and incremental policy steps.
- Structural factors narrow Hilton’s path: California’s large Democratic registration advantage, a fundraising edge for Becerra (about $40 million to Hilton’s $33.6 million), and Hilton’s ties to President Trump that are politically costly in the state.
- The race now turns on who votes: turnout in Southern California and the Central Valley, early-ballot returns, and whether Hilton’s late ads or policy rollouts can persuade undecided voters or boost Republican turnout before Nov. 3.