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Becerra Holds Commanding Lead Over Hilton as California Votes on Tuesday

A wide polling gap and a heavy Democratic voter registration edge make a statewide Republican upset unlikely.

California Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton responds to car registration prices during a campaign event at Cal Expo on Friday, Oct. 30, 2026, in Sacramento, Calif. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Villegas)
California Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra reacts at a campaign event, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
California Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton speaks with supporters during a campaign event on Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Compton, Calif. (AP Photo/William Liang)
California Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra speaks during a campaign event on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in the Hollywood section of Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jill Connelly)

Overview

  • Late polls show Democrat Xavier Becerra with a decisive lead over Republican Steve Hilton, with a UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times survey putting Becerra at about 61% and Hilton at about 34% among likely voters.
  • The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday rejected the Justice Department’s request to block ballots tied to alleged noncitizen registrations, clearing the way for California election officials to continue counting under state procedures.
  • Both campaigns made final appeals on affordability, housing, homelessness and public safety as voters cast ballots in person and by mail across the state.
  • President Trump’s endorsement of Hilton has helped the Republican raise his profile but also complicated his standing in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 45% to 25% and where many of Hilton’s promises would need a Democratic legislature to pass.
  • Millions of Californians returned mail ballots before Election Day, and if elected Becerra would become the state’s first Latino governor in more than 150 years, a milestone that supporters say would reflect changing political representation in California.