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6h ago

BEA Raises Second-Quarter U.S. GDP to 3.3% in First Revision

The updated estimate points to a rebound from tariff-driven distortions earlier in the year.

Pedestrians walk past a retail space at 715-717 Fifth Avenue in New York City, U.S., May 27, 2025. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo
FILE - President Donald Trump holds charts as he speaks about the economy in the Oval Office of the White House, Aug. 7, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, file)
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Overview

  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis lifted Q2 real GDP by 0.3 percentage points to a 3.3% annualized rate in the second of three official estimates.
  • The rebound follows a 0.5% contraction in Q1 that reflected a surge in imports as firms front-loaded inventories ahead of tariffs, with those flows reversing in Q2.
  • Recent labor data were weakened by revisions showing about 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June and a three-month average gain of roughly 35,000 in July.
  • President Donald Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief after the July employment report was released.
  • The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates elevated this year, while futures pricing via CME FedWatch places the odds of a September cut at over 87%.