Overview
- The Banco Central de Reserva del Perú lowered GDP growth to 3.2% for 2026 and to 3.0% for 2027 in its September Inflation Report, citing an unusually strong El Niño as the main driver of the revision.
- The report forecasts a deep hit to primary activities with the primary sector down 2.3%, agriculture falling 1.5%, fishing plunging 30.7%, and primary-linked manufacturing shrinking 7.1%.
- Official INEI data through July already show early damage consistent with the bank’s view: agriculture contracted 0.67% and the fishing sector fell 32.58% as marine temperatures and winds rose.
- The central bank expects non-primary sectors to hold up growth, keeping non-primary expansion at about 4.7% with construction projected near 9.5% and revised stronger forecasts for commerce and utilities.
- The sharp fisheries shock threatens coastal jobs and exporters of fishmeal and fish oil, may reduce incomes in affected regions, and will likely require targeted government relief and logistics responses to ease local and supply-chain impacts.