Overview
- The Central Bank of Argentina accelerated purchases in October to reach roughly US$1,000 million for the month and more than US$15.5 billion in 2026, but it sharply cut daily intervention to about US$18 million on Monday, Oct. 19.
- Gross reserves stood at about US$50.15 billion after rising roughly US$8,987 million year to date, an outcome that implies the BCRA retained only about 58% of its purchased dollars because of outflows and valuation changes.
- Markets reacted immediately to the slowdown as official, parallel and financial rates rose, with the mayorista up AR$6.50 to AR$1,524.50, the blue near AR$1,560, the MEP about AR$1,540.8 and the CCL around AR$1,623.9, and Argentina's sovereign risk approaching 675 basis points.
- The recent inflows that enabled the buys came mainly from seasonal agro liquidations and corporate placements while drains included debt service to international creditors and Treasury FX sales, a mix that has limited net reserve accumulation.
- The key near-term risk is whether export and private inflows persist enough to let the BCRA keep buying dollars without further lifting exchange rates or weighing on bond and equity prices, making upcoming debt maturities and the financial calendar watchpoints for markets.