Overview
- The central bank accelerated purchases in October and has bought about US$1,001 million so far this month, taking 2026 gross dollar purchases above US$15.5 billion and past the IMF minimum target of US$10 billion.
- Despite large gross buys, net international reserves rose by US$8,987 million to US$50,152 million year‑to‑date, meaning the BCRA retained roughly 58% of dollars it bought because payments to multilateral creditors and Treasury operations drained FX.
- On Monday the BCRA sharply cut its daily purchase pace to only US$18 million after a strong week of intervention, and the wholesale exchange rate rose by $6.50 to close at $1,524.50.
- Markets and analysts link recent inflows to debt liquidations, agroexport receipts and some private placements, while several firms report that dollar bond issuance slowed in early October, raising doubts about the durability of those sources.
- If seasonal harvest receipts and peso demand in Q4 boost supply, the BCRA may sustain purchases toward year‑end, but continued reserve gains will depend on external market conditions and the pace of Treasury and debt‑service outflows.