Overview
- The central bank reported a US$43 million purchase on Thursday, extending a seven-session run of net dollar buying that concentrated accumulation in the first week of October.
- The wholesale rate fell to ARS 1,515.50 and the informal 'dólar blue' retreated to about ARS 1,540, each marking their weakest levels since late September.
- Research estimates put gross reserves near US$49.3 billion and net reserves around US$8.7 billion after the modest purchases, a build that is nevertheless limited for large shocks.
- Policy has relied on heavy issuance of peso debt to absorb liquidity, and EcoGo estimates that private creditors’ holdings of peso debt rose to an equivalent of US$97 billion by September as the government shifted to shorter maturities and more indexed instruments.
- The mix of small reserve buys and larger peso issuance has eased immediate exchange-rate pressure but could leave the currency vulnerable if investor demand for dollars strengthens ahead of next year’s election.