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BCRA Data Signal U.S. Treasury Unwound Pre‑Election Peso Position as Swap Use Is Suspected

Market readings of the latest weekly balance show a collapse in peso instruments that points to redollarization without a hit to reserves.

Overview

  • The BCRA’s weekly balance shows peso-denominated instruments plunging from about ARS 3.045 trillion to roughly ARS 273 billion between October 23 and 31.
  • Analysts interpret the move as the U.S. Treasury, led by Scott Bessent, reversing a pre‑election peso position estimated at USD 2.0–2.1 billion.
  • Because official reserves did not fall, market reports say the data are consistent with partial activation of the USD 20 billion currency swap announced on October 20.
  • Bessent posted on X that the Argentine economic bridge is generating gains for Americans, while one market source estimated a return near 10%, though neither authority detailed the mechanics.
  • The BCRA declined further comment as consultants flagged bespoke peso instruments likely held outside the banking system and noted the shift implies higher BCRA liabilities rather than reserve losses, with Santander, Citi and J.P. Morgan cited as conduits in market chatter.