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BCR Sees Near-Record 2025/26 Harvest as La Niña Eases in Argentina

Larger crops would push export volumes to all-time highs, with dollar inflows constrained by weaker world prices.

Overview

  • Rosario Grain Exchange projects total grain output near 154.8 million tonnes for 2025/26, approaching an all-time high.
  • Maize is set to rebound to about 61 million tonnes, while soybean production is seen in the high‑40s to around 50 million tonnes despite reduced area.
  • Weekly Pacific sea-surface readings have moved toward neutral, and winter–spring rains restored soil moisture, lowering summer rainfall risk.
  • Short-term forecasts call for widespread storms between January 8 and 14 across key farm areas, offering timely relief for early-planted corn.
  • Exports are estimated at roughly 110 million tonnes with agro-export value near US$36.8 billion, led by the soybean complex at over US$19.5 billion, though global supply—especially from Brazil—limits price gains.