BCR Projects Record US$57.2 Billion in 2026 Dollar Inflows With Second Half Exceeding First

Overview

• The Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario's mid-July projection estimates combined liquidations from agriculture, mining and energy will reach US$57,168 million in 2026, with the second half at US$29,793 million outpacing the first half's US$27,375 million.
• By sector the agro complex is still the largest contributor at about US$34,897 million after a roughly US$1,200 million downward revision for lower export prices, mining could top US$9,000 million and energy exports are forecast to exceed US$14,400 million.
• Energy gains rest on a projected 16% rise in oil extraction and the planned VMOS pipeline that would add roughly 190,000 barrels per day and help sustain exports through the year end.
• The finance ministry plans outlined in early July would rely on stronger 2026 inflows to build reserves that help cover heavy 2027 maturities, but the projection is conditional on commodity prices, VMOS timing and execution risks.
• The report signals a structural shift away from an agriculture-driven, first-half seasonal pattern toward a more even dollar supply thanks to years of Vaca Muerta investment and a mining export boom, a change that could reduce exchange-market volatility and limit the need for large external borrowing.