Overview
- The Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario estimates total retenciones at US$4,613 million for 2026, roughly 1% below 2025 and roughly stable year‑on‑year.
- The six main agro-complexes contributed only US$1,881 million in the first half of 2026, a 51% decline versus H1 2025 that the BCR links to temporary policy changes in 2025 that shifted export declarations earlier.
- Analysts expect a strong recovery in the second half, with projected receipts of US$2,731 million for July–December that would more than offset the weak first half.
- The report breaks down contributions by crop, with soybeans supplying the bulk at US$3,275 million, followed by maize US$754 million, wheat US$324 million, sunflower US$158 million, barley US$79 million, and sorghum US$22 million.
- Despite the rebound, projected 2026 receipts remain far below the 2021–22 peaks (up to about US$9.1 billion); export duties matter for Argentina’s foreign‑exchange and fiscal balance because changes in rates change producers’ timing of export registrations and therefore short‑term revenue flows.