Overview
- The upgrade from 3.1% to 3.2% keeps Peru’s outlook within a 3.0%–3.5% growth band for a third consecutive year.
- Liquidity from an eighth AFP withdrawal is expected to boost household spending from late 2025 through the summer of 2026.
- A firmer minerals price backdrop supports exports and sustains terms of trade at multi‑decade highs.
- BCP projects the BCRP will hold the policy rate at 4.25% through year‑end, with a possible cut to 4.00% in 2026 if inflation trends toward 1%.
- The baseline scenario assumes inflation near 2% and an exchange rate around S/3.70 per US$ in 2026, supported by accelerating credit and improving real wages.