Overview
- Senior Energy and Finance staff have independently verified errors that overstate forecasted gas revenues by about $1.46 billion across five fiscal years due to misapplied U.S.‑to‑Canadian dollar formulas and other unit mistakes.
- The biggest single mistake produced a 44‑cent per gigajoule overstatement in the province’s 2026–27 price forecast, which directly reduced expected revenue forecasts.
- Correcting the errors cuts this fiscal year’s gas revenue forecast by $306 million, lowering the projection from $1.297 billion to $991 million and reducing average annual expected revenues by about $292 million through 2030.
- Treaty 8 First Nations raised concerns about gas accounting earlier in the summer and opposition parties have called for further scrutiny including a possible auditor‑general review as the government strengthens quality controls.
- The corrections complicate the outlook for a new natural‑gas royalty framework set to start Jan. 1 because the lower forecasts change expected returns and will shape revenue sharing with communities and government programs.