Overview

• Both banks entered a quiet period after the acceptance window closed last week, with the CNMV slated to disclose final participation on 17 October.
• BBVA extended opening hours at 60 branches in Spain in a last push to help Sabadell shareholders tender their stock before the deadline.
• Expectations diverge sharply: BBVA projects acceptance above 50%—potentially near 60%—while Sabadell’s leadership doubts even the 30% threshold will be met.
• Key holders feature in the calculus, with investor David Martínez (~4%) saying he would tender and Zurich stating it would not participate, as large funds like BlackRock, Dimensional, and Merrill Lynch are closely watched.
• BBVA has floated integration assurances, proposing an integration committee with Sabadell executives and signaling possible board changes, as government conditions require Sabadell’s functional independence for three to five years.