Overview
- Murcia is projected to expand 3.3% in 2025, trailing the Comunitat Valenciana at 3.6% and the Canary Islands at 3.5%, with the Balearic Islands at 3.2% and both Madrid and Catalonia expected to outperform the national average.
- BBVA attributes stronger regional outcomes to faster deployment of Recovery and Resilience Facility funds, post‑dana support measures, solid goods exports, sustained foreign tourism and increased public investment.
- Spain’s 2025 GDP forecast has been raised by half a point to 3.0%, a revision BBVA links to resilient goods exports and a firmer push in public investment.
- The 2026 outlook is upgraded to 2.3%, with external demand contributing less as domestic demand stays firm and growth in tourism‑dependent regions moderates.
- Northern, manufacturing‑heavy regions are seen growing below average in 2025 — Aragón 2.2%, Asturias 2.3%, Navarra and the Basque Country 2.4%, Cantabria 2.5% — while higher defense spending could bolster activity in Galicia, Madrid, Murcia and Andalusia.