Overview

• BBVA now projects 0.7% GDP growth in 2025, up from a prior forecast of a 0.4% contraction, after stronger-than-expected first-half activity.
• Companies brought forward orders to the United States due to possible tariffs, and BBVA notes roughly 82% of Mexican exports to that market are currently tariff-free.
• The bank expects a second-half slowdown as job creation cools, consumption softens, and investment loses momentum.
• BBVA sees year-end 2025 inflation at 3.8% headline and 4.1% core, a Banxico policy rate near 7.0% by December and 6.5% in 2026, and a modest peso depreciation to about 19.40 per dollar at year-end.
• Fiscal projections put broad public debt at 52.3% of GDP in 2025, with a potential rise toward 58.1% by 2030 without firmer consolidation, which could pressure the sovereign rating.