BBSR Projections Warn of Sharp Population Losses in Lausitz by 2038

Overview

• The federal analysis models two scenarios for coal regions, with the Lausitz projected to lose about 72,000 residents by 2038 in one case, equal to a 6.4 percent decline, and up to 9.3 percent in a less favorable variant.
• Rural counties are set to contract, with projected losses in Brandenburg of up to 14.6 percent in Spreewald‑Lausitz, 14.1 percent in Spree‑Neiße, and 13 percent in Elbe‑Elster, while Saxony's Görlitz could fall by up to 13.8 percent and Bautzen by up to 12 percent.
• Urban centers may diverge, as Cottbus could grow by nearly 19 percent in the optimistic scenario but slip by 0.2 percent if projects have limited effect, and Dahme‑Spreewald is seen gaining 4.5 percent on inflows from Berlin.
• The Mitteldeutsches Revier shows a smaller overall decline of 2.0 to 3.8 percent by 2038, with Leipzig standing out for projected growth as surrounding rural areas continue to lose population.
• The Rheinisches Revier is expected to be largely stable, ranging from a 0.8 percent decline to a 0.2 percent increase, with local variation including possible drops in Mönchengladbach and Aachen and gains in Heinsberg.