Overview

• Bayrou survived the July 1 no-confidence motion with only 189 votes for censure against the 289 required to topple his government.
• The Socialist Party filed the motion after pension reform talks collapsed, ending the conditional support it had offered Bayrou’s government.
• Marine Le Pen’s National Rally withheld support, ensuring Bayrou’s survival while preserving leverage over upcoming budget votes.
• His cabinet must now rally a fractured National Assembly to pass a €40 billion savings plan, a process likely to trigger additional censure attempts.
• A successful vote against Bayrou could force President Macron to appoint his seventh prime minister in the face of persistent parliamentary turmoil.