Overview

• Five days before the 8 September vote, François Bayrou rebuffed Socialist demands, criticized their bid to take Matignon, rejected dissolution as a source of clarity, and offered only limited flexibility on holiday cuts while moving ahead with AME restriction decrees.
• Emmanuel Macron gathered coalition leaders at the Élysée and directed them to seek support from the Socialists and other non‑LFI, non‑RN forces, with participants expressing opposition to dissolution for now.
• The PS, LFI and RN have declared they will not grant confidence; PS chief Olivier Faure says the party stands ready to govern with a left prime minister, as LR remains divided despite Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau urging deputies to back the government.
• The RN and Nicolas Sarkozy called for a rapid dissolution, with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella pushing for snap elections and presenting the party as prepared for an early contest.
• Market pressure is rising with France’s 30‑year yield above 4.5 percent, the €44 billion 2026 savings plan facing broad resistance, and Economy Minister Eric Lombard stating that budget compromises with the PS would be inevitable if the government falls.