Overview

• Parliament was formally convened in extraordinary session for September 8 with a single agenda item, a policy statement under Article 49-1 preceding the confidence vote.
• The Rassemblement National says it will meet Bayrou next week ‘without naivety’ but will vote against him, while La France insoumise will skip the talks and pursue censure.
• Bayrou plans to receive party leaders from Monday and says he will negotiate only if there is agreement on the scale of savings, after outlining €43.8–44 billion in cuts including two public-holiday suppressions and retiree tax changes.
• Major left and far-right parties have declared they will not back the government, making the prime minister’s survival unlikely according to their public statements and parliamentary arithmetic reported by multiple outlets.
• The confidence gamble clouds the early-October budget timetable, with officials and legal notes warning of possible recourse to special finance procedures as 10-year borrowing costs top roughly 3.5% and business leaders at the Medef forum warn uncertainty hurts investment.