Overview

• All blocs in the Nouveau Front Populaire and the Rassemblement National have said they will vote against granting confidence under Article 49.1, making defeat likely.
• Bayrou detailed 2026 measures including a specific contribution from high incomes, scrapping ‘unjust’ tax niches, tougher anti‑fraud provisions, and possible stewardship of unemployment and pensions by social partners under a fiscal balance rule.
• An Elabe poll reports 72% of respondents want deputies to withhold confidence, as business leaders voice anxiety over political and budget uncertainty.
• Bayrou courted the CFDT at its summer event relocated to Essonne after local threats from other unions, but he left without securing backing, while Renaissance and Horizons signaled support for him to stay.
• Post‑vote scenarios under discussion include appointing a new prime minister, a reshuffle or a dissolution, as unions and protest networks prepare a ‘Bloquons tout’ day of action on September 10 and Bardella urges dissolution or Macron’s resignation.