Overview

• François Bayrou confirmed he will seek a confidence vote on 8 September under Article 49.1 to validate his 2026 budget course built on €43.8 billion in savings.
• He outlined new pitches targeting the wealthiest, scrapping tax breaks deemed unfair, trimming some business aid in exchange for lighter rules, and intensifying anti‑fraud efforts.
• The savings blueprint includes a de facto spending freeze into 2026, freezes on income‑tax brackets and pensions, health and social cuts such as doubling the medical co‑pay cap to €100, and public‑sector job reductions with a one‑in‑three replacement rule from 2027.
• Bayrou courted the CFDT at its summer meeting in Boissy‑la‑Rivière and proposed handing management of key social protections to social partners under a fiscal “golden rule,” but the union signaled continued mistrust and a 10 September national action is in preparation.
• Left‑wing groups and the Rassemblement National say they will vote against, leaving Bayrou reliant on the centrist bloc and conservative allies and fueling scenarios discussed by analysts that range from his resignation to the president naming a new premier or dissolving the Assembly.