Overview

• After announcing the 8 September confidence vote, François Bayrou outlined new budget sweeteners including a targeted contribution from top earners, scrapping unjustified tax breaks, and a tougher anti‑fraud bill.
• The government’s 2026 framework still seeks €43.8 billion in savings through spending reconduction, health and social cuts, maintaining the 2025 high‑earner minimum tax (CDHR), and public‑sector reductions, with floated holiday removals drawing heavy backlash.
• Opposition blocs from the Nouveau Front Populaire to the Rassemblement National say they will vote against him, while Macron’s camp pledges support but lacks the numbers to secure a majority.
• Public sentiment is hostile, with 72% opposing a confidence win in an Elabe/BFMTV poll, unions skeptical of the plan, and a nationwide “Bloquons tout” mobilization slated for 10 September.
• Failure to secure confidence would obligate the government to resign under the Constitution, leaving Emmanuel Macron to choose a replacement, reshuffle, or consider dissolution as the RN openly presses for new elections.