Overview

• Last‑ditch talks with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella yielded “no miracle,” with the National Rally reaffirming it will vote Bayrou down and urging a rapid dissolution.
• The 2026 plan targets roughly €43.8–44 billion in savings, largely through spending cuts including limits on public hiring, suspending pension indexation, and scrapping two public holidays after a 2024 deficit of 5.8% of GDP and debt above 113%.
• Parliamentary math leaves centrists and allied conservatives at about 210 seats versus more than 320 across far‑right and left blocs, making survival in the National Assembly highly unlikely.
• Market nerves have intensified, with France’s 10‑year yield around 3.5%, the 30‑year topping 4.5% this week, and major bank shares sliding, as analysts flag debt‑sustainability risks.
• Next steps under discussion include naming a successor such as Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin or Éric Lombard, as the Socialists pitch a counter‑budget with wealth taxes and unions and activists prepare a Sept. 10 ‘Bloquons Tout’ day of disruption.