Overview

• The minority government faces an expected loss on Sept. 8 over a 2026 plan to save roughly €43.8–€44 billion by freezing pensions, cutting healthcare and scrapping two public holidays.
• Parties across the spectrum have pledged to vote Bayrou out, which would trigger his resignation and require the president to name a new prime minister rather than call snap elections.
• Grassroots organizers have called a nationwide shutdown for Sept. 10, and major unions plan Sept. 18 strikes that could cripple transport and public services.
• Market stress persists with French 10‑year yields near 3.5–3.6% and a Fitch rating review due Sept. 12 that analysts warn could result in a downgrade if the crisis deepens.
• Public debt is about €3.3–€3.35 trillion, roughly 114% of GDP, and Finance Minister Éric Lombard has said IMF support is a possible, though undesirable, contingency if pressures escalate.