Overview

• The National Assembly meets at 3 p.m. in Paris with a result expected in the early evening, and a defeat would require François Bayrou to tender his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron.
• Opposition parties from the far left to the far right have pledged to vote against the minority government after denouncing proposed cuts including scrapping two public holidays and freezing welfare spending.
• Macron would then choose between appointing a new prime minister or calling snap elections, with multiple reports indicating he is exploring cooperation with the Socialists rather than dissolving parliament.
• France’s strained public finances underpin the showdown, with last year’s deficit around 5.8% of GDP, debt near 114% of GDP, and widening bond spreads signaling investor caution.
• Labor unrest is building, with a September 10 day of action and a September 18 union strike planned over the budget as markets and EU partners track the fallout.